Thursday, July 5, 2012

A New Record For Scientific Retractions?

I disagree about the rarity, on the basis of empirical evidence, for example the recent paper in Science (IIRC, sorry I don't have the reference handy) in which a cancer researcher failed to replicate 46 out of 53 papers published -- all of them with peer review -- prior to embarking on new research in the field. Similar meta-studies have turned up astounding rates of non-reproducible results in other fields (some more than others -- sociology and IIRC social psychology topping the non-medical list).

One problem is that we have constructed a system that rewards the publication of positive results and punishes negative results published or unpublished. Punishes as in makes or breaks the entire career of young researchers, if the negative result occurs when they are up for tenure. Rewards as in ensures research funding and professional advancement as long as positive results keep flowing out.

Another fundamental problem that peer review has a terrible time with is confirmation bias. Science in general has a serious problem with confirmation bias. If one ever embarks on a study where one seeks evidence for some causal linkage associated with some phenomenon in a general population where the phenomenon occurs, one can always find exemplars that support your hypothesis. Lacking actual work to replicate your results using sound methodology (e.g. double blinded and/or conducted using competent statistical analysis, something still as rare as hen's teeth in science in general because to it is difficult to do statistics correctly in a complex problem, not easy, and certainly not easy as in covered in one or two undergrad stats courses which is all that it is probable that the researcher has ever taken) confirmation bias can not only worm its way into the literature, it can come to dominate entire fields as a significant fraction of scientists who do the reviewing for both publication and grants are "descended" from one or two original researchers and their papers. It can take decades for this to be discovered and work out in the wash.

Peer review works better in some disciplines than others. Math it works well, because there is literally nothing up a publisher's sleeve -- fraudulent publication is indeed impossible and even mistaken publication is relatively rare and conditional on involving math so difficult even the reviewers have a hard time following it. Physics and the very hard sciences are also fortunate in that it works decently (although less perfectly), at least where there is competition and the proper critical/skeptical eye applied to results new and old. At least there a mix of laboratory replication and strong requirements of consistency usually keep one out of the worst trouble.

A simple rule of thumb is: The more a result relies on population studies, especially ones conducted with any kind of selection process or worse selection process plus the actual modification of the data according to some heuristic or correction process, where the study itself is conducted from the beginning to confirm some given hypothesis, the more likely it is that the result (when published) is bullshit that will eventually, possibly decades later, turn out to be completely wrong. If you have enough places for a thumb to be subtly placed on the scales and the owner of the thumb has any sort of vested or open interest in the outcome, it is even odds or better that a teensy bit of pressure will be applied, quite possibly without even the intention of the researcher. Confirmation bias is not necessarily "fraud" -- it is just bad science, science poorly done.

There is a move afoot to do something about this. We know that it happens. We know why it happens. We know a number of things that we can do to reduce the probability of it happening -- for example requiring the open publication of all data and methods contemporary with any paper produced from them, permitting absolutely anybody to look at them and see if t

Source: http://rss.slashdot.org/~r/Slashdot/slashdotScience/~3/w8WwUCegxn4/a-new-record-for-scientific-retractions

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Australia, Indonesia try to help boat in distress

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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/australia-indonesia-try-help-boat-distress-060753942.html

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Rob Portman, a master of Washington's inner workings

POSTED: 01:30 a.m. HST, Jul 04, 2012

WASHINGTON >> He has played the role of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Al Gore and Barack Obama. He has spent hours studying intricate details of their policy positions, perfecting the cadences of their voices and refining the lines of attack against their Republican opponents.

For more than a decade, Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, has deployed an unusual expertise: Impersonating Democrats to help candidates in his own party prepare for debates. He has frustrated George W. Bush, agitated Dick Cheney and pushed John McCain beyond the brink of irritation.

?I hate him still,? McCain said with an admiring air of sarcasm, laughing in a brief interview as he recalled their testy practice sessions four years ago. ?Because he?s such a jerk, he gets under your skin, says things that are impossible to respond to.?

But this year, Mitt Romney may have another part in mind for Portman.

The search for Romney?s running mate is entering its final phase, and Portman, who has ascended to senator from staff member during nearly three decades in Washington, is believed to be high on the list of prospects. He has campaigned repeatedly with Romney, and he is flying to New Hampshire this week ? where the Romney family is vacationing ? to appear at a Republican fundraiser.

Portman, who was elected to the Senate in 2010 after representing the Cincinnati area in the House for 12 years, is relatively unknown to most Republicans. But here in Washington, where he worked in both Bush administrations and has won praise as an effective legislator, he is among a select breed of politicians who have a keen and deep understanding of the inner workings of government.

When he arrived in the Senate, he startled some Republican colleagues when he pulled out his own charts and graphs of the nation?s rising deficits and its debt of $15 trillion. His earnestness initially rubbed a few people the wrong way, but his Republican colleagues in the Senate credit him for a strong command of policy.

Still, at a time when fiscal concerns weigh heavily on the electorate, Portman?s tenure as budget director for George W. Bush could complicate his prospects, given criticism by conservatives that Bush and his team allowed excessive increases in government spending and budget deficits. In interviews, several friends argued that since Portman served for only a year as director of the Office of Management and Budget, he did not bear responsibility for the administration?s full record.

And with Romney not known as a particularly electrifying candidate, the perception of Portman as being unexciting could also count against him in the search for a running mate.

The vetting of possible vice-presidential candidates has been under way for months. It is a secretive process overseen at the Romney campaign headquarters by one of the candidate?s most trusted confidants, Beth Myers. Last month, Romney tried to discourage speculation by declaring, ?There are only two people in this country who know who are being vetted and who are not.?

Republicans close to Romney believe Portman is on the list, along with a handful of others including former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Rep. Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin and Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana. The roster could be larger, associates of Romney caution, but many Republicans argue that Portman is ideally suited for campaigning in the critical Midwestern states and for governing.

?He would probably be the best-prepared person of anyone since George Herbert Walker Bush became Ronald Reagan?s vice president,? said Joe Hagin, who also worked in both Bush administrations and has known Portman since childhood. ?He has an immense understanding of the budget, the tax code and trade and foreign policy.?

Portman, 56, has close ties to the Bush family. Barbara Bush recorded radio advertisements that helped him win an early Ohio congressional race. This week in Maine, Portman is scheduled to have lunch with the elder George Bush, whom he served in the White House as associate counsel and head of legislative affairs.

Friends of both men say they are not certain if Bush has shared his admiration for Portman with Romney ? any such talk would be private, presumptuous or both, one associate said. But the former president praised Portman when asked about him last week by The New York Times.

?Rob keeps telling me I?m the guy who got him into all of this,? Bush said in a statement. ?All I know is I am very proud of him and his record. If you ask me how and when we met, I don?t remember when I met anyone anymore. I just know that I?ve known him a very long time.?

The Romney campaign and its team of lawyers have probably combed through every facet of Portman?s career, which began in Washington after he graduated in 1984 from the University of Michigan Law School. He worked as a lobbyist at Patton Boggs, an influential firm in the capital, and worked at two Ohio law firms between stints in the two Bush administrations.

No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Portman?s home state, but it is unclear how much he would lift the ticket. He won his Senate race two years ago by 18 percentage points, but a Quinnipiac University poll in May found that 59 percent of Ohio voters did not know enough about him to form an opinion.

The chemistry between Romney and Portman was on display on a recent bus tour across Ohio. After they bounded onto the stage together in Newark, Ohio, last month, Romney beamed as Portman assailed the economic record of the Obama administration. The two men have an easy rapport, aides said, which was strengthened when Portman endorsed Romney during the primary.

Portman can deliver a speech in Spanish. He learned the language while living on a ranch near the Rio Grande in Texas during a college break, working alongside illegal immigrants. The experience intrigued him enough that he used it to write his anthropology thesis at Dartmouth.

He recorded radio ads in Spanish during his Senate race and promoted his jobs plan to Hispanic voters. With a light accent and a trill of his R?s, he introduced himself by saying, ?Soy Rob Portman, candidato para el Senado de los Estados Unidos.?

Portman, who has returned to Cincinnati on weekends during much of his time in Washington, has been married to his wife, Jane, for 25 years. She once worked for a Democrat, Tom Daschle, during his early days representing South Dakota in the House. She agreed to become a Republican when her husband agreed to become a Methodist before their marriage in 1986. They have three children.

Portman?s friends say he has started to become exasperated at being labeled by comedians and commentators as boring. Stephen Colbert, on a recent episode of his Comedy Central program, said a Romney-Portman ticket would be ?the bland leading the bland.?

But many Republicans say that is precisely Portman?s attraction, as he would provide an antidote to Sarah Palin, the party?s last vice-presidential candidate. He has delivered a series of self-deprecating jokes to combat being described as dull. But in a recent interview he said, ?Just because you can give a policy speech, doesn?t mean you can?t also do the other thing.?

The other thing, Portman said, is firing up Republican crowds, which he did as he campaigned alongside Romney last month in Ohio. The crowd roared when he bellowed, ?Do you agree with me that we can?t afford four more years of Barack Obama??

Rick A. Lazio, a former member of Congress from New York who roomed with Portman when they served together in the House, dismissed criticism that Portman lacked excitement. He said bluntly, ?We?re looking for competence.?

In his unsuccessful bid for the Senate in 2000, Lazio asked his friend to play Hillary Clinton to help him prepare for his debates, a rare time when Portman played the role of a woman. He did not wear a wig, Lazio said, but he perfected her in most every way.

?You just try to make it as unpleasant as possible,? Portman said with a smile, recalling dozens of debate grilling sessions in which he relentlessly pushed the candidates.

Cheney offers testimony to Portman?s rigor. He endured months of debate training camps in 2000 and 2004, when Portman played the parts of Joseph I. Lieberman and John Edwards.

A framed debate poster hanging in Portman?s office carries a scribbled inscription from Cheney: ?Rob, you were tougher than my opponent.?

Source: http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/20120704_Rob_Portman_a_master_of_Washingtons_inner_workings.html

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'Shift'in Russia, China positions on Syria: Annan

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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/russia-china-shifting-syria-annan-spokesman-113247002.html

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Wednesday, July 4, 2012

As Cavendish skids, Greipel wins at Tour

ROUEN, France (AP) ? Britain's Mark Cavendish felt painful scrapes from the hard Tour de France asphalt in Wednesday's fourth stage. He bared no hard feelings toward rival Andre Greipel, who won it.

The German speedster, leading a thinned-out group of sprinters at the finish, got his 14th victory in all competitions this year while Cavendish nursed wounds from a late crash as the race entered Normandy.

Swiss rider Fabian Cancellara got briefly held up by the trouble but didn't go down, and retained the overall lead for a fifth day after the 133-mile trek alongside the English Channel from Abbeville to Rouen.

The top standings didn't change: Bradley Wiggins, the leader of Cavendish's Team Sky hoping to be Britain's first Tour winner, is second, 7 seconds behind the Swiss leader. Defending champion Cadel Evans of Australia is 17 seconds off the pace in seventh.

With less than two miles left, a group spill brought down Cavendish, scraping up his rainbow-colored jersey of world champion. He looked a bit dazed as Sky staff checked him out and helped him get on a bike. He rode gingerly to finish the stage. The squad said he was banged up, but appeared to have no serious injuries and was likely to start Thursday.

With Cavendish out of the picture, Greipel burst out of the depleted group of sprinters, and sped to the straightaway finish, a split-second ahead of Italy's Alessandro Petacchi and Dutch rider Tom Veelers.

The German said he didn't pay much attention to the late crash.

"I heard something behind me ... but at 60 kilometers per hour, you don't worry about what happened behind," the Lotto-Belisol rider told France-2 TV.

While pro cyclists all run the risk of crashing, Cavendish's spill amounted to a scare ? if faint ? to his high hopes of winning gold for Britain in the Olympic road race next month.

Cavendish has played second fiddle on Sky over the team's goal for Wiggins to get a victory, and unlike in years past has only one devoted lead-out man to guide and shield him in the frenzied last sprint: Bernard Eisel, an Austrian who also got banged up in the spill.

Cavendish, seen by many as the world's best sprinter and the winner of 21 Tour stages including Stage 2 Monday, conveyed no hard feelings over his mishap.

"Ouch.....," Cavendish wrote on Twitter. "Crash at 2.5km to finish today. Taken some scuffs to my left side, but I've bounced pretty well again. Congrats to (at)AndreGreipel."

Tyler Farrar, a sprint specialist from the United States who won the Tour stage on July 4 last year, also got tangled up and missed out on a chance for a repeat sprint victory on the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

In the pileup, the Garmin-Sharp rider flew off his bike, "somersaulted over his bars, tucked and rolled and ended up on his feet running away from the crash," tweeted team chiropractor Matt Rabin.

Despite the crash, Greipel said his victory was well-deserved.

"There were still really fast guys there for the sprint and I think we just deserve this victory," he said, playing down a question about whether he savored it less because Cavendish was knocked out.

"I think it's no question about that," Greipel added. "I won a stage in the Tour de France!"

At a still-young 27 years old, Cavendish, who was voted the BBC's sports personality of the year in Britain last year, has 21 stage wins at the Tour ? one short of the number that seven-time Tour winner Lance Armstrong had in his career.

An official race medical report said Cavendish sustained several scratches and a cut on a finger, Eisel sustained a gash that required stitches on his forehead, and Garmin's Robbie Hunter of South Africa scraped up his left side. Daniel Oss of Liquigas had a hip injury.

According to the Tour rulebook, riders who get delayed by a crash in the last three kilometers of the stage are awarded the same time as the stage winner.

The pack clocked the same time as Greipel ? 5 hours, 18 minutes, 32 seconds ? though some stragglers nursing wounds from crashes earlier this week, like world time-trial champion Tony Martin of Germany, and Tom Danielson of the United States, straggled in 2:21 behind.

Cancellara, who briefly got stalled by the crash, sighed with relief: "I'm really happy to get past that, a fall early hurts ... today it was calm, and then hectic at the finish."

David Moncoutie and Anthony Delaplace of France and Japan's Yukiya Arashiro broke away early and chiseled out a maximum lead of 8:40 at mile 10, but the pack reeled them in with about six miles left in the stage.

Riders set off from Abbeville ? a town where 6,000 buildings were destroyed or damaged in a German bombing raid in World War II in May 1940 ? and rode along the English Channel's picturesque, chalky cliffs with views of giant wind-turbine installations.

Thursday's fifth stage promises another bunch sprint, after a mostly flat 122-mile course from Rouen to Saint-Quentin north of Paris.

___

AP Sports Writer Samuel Petrequin and Associated Press writer Greg Keller in Rouen, France, contributed to this report.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/cavendish-skids-greipel-wins-tour-205224205--spt.html

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US factory orders increased 0.7 percent in May

FILE-In this Wednesday, May, 9, 2012, file photo, businessman Earl Kluft, who manufactures luxury mattresses, performs the final step in fully securing all materials to provide mattresses maximum support and longevity, at his factory in Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. The Commerce Department reported Tuesday, July 3, 2012, that factory orders increased 0.7 percent in May. U.S. factories received more orders in May from April after two consecutive months of declines, as businesses demanded more goods that signal investment plans. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes, File)

FILE-In this Wednesday, May, 9, 2012, file photo, businessman Earl Kluft, who manufactures luxury mattresses, performs the final step in fully securing all materials to provide mattresses maximum support and longevity, at his factory in Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. The Commerce Department reported Tuesday, July 3, 2012, that factory orders increased 0.7 percent in May. U.S. factories received more orders in May from April after two consecutive months of declines, as businesses demanded more goods that signal investment plans. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes, File)

FILE- In this Tuesday, May 1, 2012, file photo, worker Renaldo Escobar, of Boston, center, presses a shoe onto a last during the assembly process at the New Balance Athletic Shoe, Inc. factory in Boston. The Commerce Department reported Tuesday, July 3, 2012, that factory orders increased 0.7 percent in May. U.S. factories received more orders in May from April after two consecutive months of declines, as businesses demanded more goods that signal investment plans. (AP Photo/Steven Senne, File)

FILE PHOTO- In this Tuesday, May 1, 2012, file photo, worker Khan Simom, of Boston, glues cushions to unfinished shoes during the assembly process at the New Balance Athletic Shoe, Inc. factory in Boston. The Commerce Department reported Tuesday, July 3, 2012, that factory orders increased 0.7 percent in May. U.S. factories received more orders in May from April after two consecutive months of declines, as businesses demanded more goods that signal investment plans. (AP Photo/Steven Senne, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) ? Companies placed more orders with U.S. factories in May from April, demanding more computers, machinery and other equipment that signal investment plans.

The increase is a welcome sign after two months of declining factory orders.

Still, factory orders are down from the start of the year. And more recent data show manufacturing activity shrank in June for the first time in three years, adding to worries that weaker global growth is weighing on the U.S. economy.

"The demand for manufactured goods is recovering moderately and irregularly, but that recovery has been relatively weak relative to the magnitude of the previous declines," said Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics

Factory orders increased 0.7 percent in May from April, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

Core capital goods, which include machinery and computers, rose 2.1 percent. That's better than the 1.6 percent estimated in a preliminary report a week ago and shows companies are still making investment plans.

Overall factory orders increased to $469 billion. That's 43.5 percent higher than the recession low reached in March 2009. But orders have fallen 2.5 percent over the past five months from their post-recession high hit in December.

Manufacturing has lost some vigor this year. U.S. job growth has slowed and consumers and businesses are less confident in the economy. Europe's debt crisis has reduced demand for U.S. exports. And manufacturing has slowed in big countries like China, which rely on U.S. factories for equipment, machinery and vehicles.

Orders for long-lasting durable goods, everything from airplanes to refrigerators, rose 1.3 percent in May. Orders for non-durable goods, which include food, paper, chemicals and energy products, edged up 0.2 percent. The increase may have been held back by falling oil and gas prices.

Still, orders are likely to decline in June, based on a report from the Institute of Supply Management. The trade group of purchasing managers on Monday said manufacturing contracted in June for the first time since July 2009 ? one month after the recession ended.

Factory production and exports declined, and a measure of new orders plunged.

Economists said the manufacturing figures from the ISM survey were consistent with growth at an annual rate of 1.5 percent or less.

Such growth would be lower than the January-March quarter's tepid annual pace of 1.9 percent. Growth of 1.9 percent typically generates roughly 90,000 jobs a month. That's considered too weak to reduce the unemployment rate, which was 8.2 percent in May.

Employers added an average of only 73,000 jobs per month in April and May, a sharp slowdown from the monthly average of 226,000 jobs added in January through March.

Despite the slowdown, manufacturers have reported job gains for eight straight months.

The government reports Friday on June employment. Economists forecast employers added just 90,000 jobs last month and no change in the unemployment rate

Associated Press

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AschNBA: ?@Charley_Walters: Hall of Fame ex-Minneapolis Lakers coach Johnny Kundla turned 96 on Tuesday, doing fine living in Minneapolis.?

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Source: http://twitter.com/AschNBA/statuses/220520274817318912

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